Will 2026 be the year of reset?
After a challenging and transformative 2025, we approach 2026 with a sense of renewed momentum and cautious optimism. October closed with Australia’s media market looking unusually fragile; confidence is thinning, bookings are soft and demand is being pulled down by a handful of categories with just ten sectors accounting for 90% of the FYTD decline. With October spend falling 14.7%, even typically resilient channels like digital and TV posted double-digit loss. However, as we move into the festive season, early indicators show the foundations of stabilisation beginning to form.
Despite these monthly numbers, the broader CYTD market remains a slither of positivity, defining where the industry stands – not broken, but deeply uncertain. Yet uncertainty can be a catalyst for renewal, and as 2025 wraps up, there’s a clear sense that confidence is starting to return. From here, it’s where I see the shape of 2026 emerging. Some of my key predictions include:
1. Expect a soft first half – but a confident bounce back in H2.
Forward pacing shows November bookings sitting at 62% of last year and December at 42%, however January already sitting at 8.3% three months out, which is the highest in 3 years. This trend suggests two things:
a) Advertisers are hesitant but not absent.
b) Once visibility on market conditions improves, spend can bounce back quickly
Prediction: First half will remain on the softer side, but by Q3 the industry will be will and truly in rebound mode. 2025’s slump was heavily driven by a handful of large categories – meaning the pipeline for recovery is unusually concentrated.
2. Outdoor will continue to be the stability anchor in the media mix.
Outdoor was the quiet winner of 2025:
· Strongest performer in October (-5.9% vs the wider markets -14.7%)
· Calendar year growth of +8.9%
· FYTD only down – 1.3%
With pDOOH maturing and the increase in digital inventory, OOH has become the most reliable high-reach solution in the market. The introduction of Move2.0 will only continue to strengthen OOH’s appeal.
Prediction: Outdoor continues to grow and solidifies #3 spot behind digital and TV and becomes the medium least impacted by economic mood swing.
3. Streaming sites and niche digital environments will continue to outperform the digital category.
Digital as a whole fell -15% in October, however streaming sites were up 1.9% and CYTD are up 7.3%. Largely due to new entrants to the market and an abundance of new inventory. Niche placements such as podcasts and sports communities signal growth is coming to these areas.
Prediction: Digital in 2026 won’t grow evenly. Premium environments such as streaming, BVOD and content will grow at a faster rate than the wider category
Despite October delivering the hardest hit of the year, CYTD market performance is still relatively positive. And as we move into Christmas -with brands planning ahead, audiences re-engaging, and early 2026 indicators trending upward - there’s genuine reason for optimism.
I think in 2026 we will see the year of the reset, with consumer and advertiser confidence starting to return. I’m not expecting a boom, but a more stable, more assured market – setting us up for a brighter year ahead. With our team now joining forces with Havas, we’re even better placed to help clients navigate this reset with confidence, combining local expertise with global capability.